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CPTPP\u56fd\u5bb6\u5206\u7ec4\u63a2\u7a76\u7b2c3\u9636\u6bb5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4e9a\u592a\u5730\u533a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3b\u8981\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u4e9a\u592a\u6b27\u6d323\u56fd\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u56fd\u5bb6\u3001\u5176\u4f59\u4e9a\u592a\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u81f3\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u5206\u7c7b\u5373\u53ef\u6ee1\u8db34\u9636\u6bb5\u6a21\u62df\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6b27\u76df\u662f\u5168\u7403\u524d\u4e09\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u53e6\u5c06\u9664\u8377\u5170\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u5916\u7684\u5176\u4f5925\u4e2a\u6b27\u76df\u56fd\u5bb6\u5355\u72ec\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u7ec4\u3002\u7efc\u4e0a\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u6700\u65b0\u7248GTAP10.0\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u4e2d\u7684141\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u5730\u533a\u5212\u5206\u4e3a 15\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u7ec4\uff0c\u5404\u7ec4\u7f16\u53f7\u53ca\u5305\u542b\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u5730\u533a\u5177\u4f53\u5982\u88682\u6240\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"664\" height=\"522\" src=\"http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6910\" srcset=\"http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-7.png 664w, http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-7-300x236.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 664px) 100vw, 664px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7ec4\u5212\u5206\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u672c\u6587\u5e76\u672a\u7814\u7a76\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4e14\u8003\u8651\u516c\u5171\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u5e76\u672a\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5c06GTAP10.0\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u4e2d\u768465\u4e2a\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5212\u5206\u4e3a10 \u4e2a\u5927\u7c7b\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u4e3a\u519c\u4e1a\u3001\u7267\u4e1a\u3001\u6797\u6e14\u4e1a\u3001\u91c7\u6398\u4e1a\u3001\u98df\u54c1\u996e\u6599\u53ca\u70df\u8349\u52a0\u5de5\u4e1a\u3001\u7eba\u7ec7\u670d\u88c5\u4e1a\u3001\u8f7b\u5de5\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u3001\u91cd\u5de5\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u3001\u516c\u5171\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u517110\u4e2a\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7ec4\uff0c\u5404\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7ec4\u7f16\u7801\u53ca\u6240\u542b\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5982\u88683\u6240\u793a\u3002\u5728\u8981\u7d20\u7ec4\u7684\u5212\u5206\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u9700\u5bf9\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4eba\u53e3\u8fdb\u884c\u9012\u63a8\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u5c06\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u4e2d\u7684\u719f\u7ec3\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u3001\u975e\u719f\u7ec3\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5747\u5212\u5206\u81f3\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u8981\u7d20\u7ec4\uff0c\u5176\u4f59\u8981\u7d20\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u571f\u5730\u3001\u8d44\u672c\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"671\" height=\"297\" src=\"http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6911\" srcset=\"http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-8.png 671w, http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-8-300x133.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 671px) 100vw, 671px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u6a21\u62df\u65b9\u6848\u8bbe\u8ba1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0 \u00a0 GTAP10.0\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u5e74\u4efd\u4e3a2014\u5e74\uff0c\u4e3a\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6570\u636e\u7684\u65f6\u6548\u6027\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u501f\u9274Kawasaki \u7b49\uff082019\uff09\u3001\u674e\u65b0\u5174\u7b49\uff082020\uff09\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c 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http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-9-300x149.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 660px) 100vw, 660px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u5728 S1\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f9d\u636eWTO\u8d38\u6613\u4fe1\u606f\u95e8\u6237\u7f51\u7ad9\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u8d27\u7269\u8d38\u6613\u975e\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u6570\u91cf\u5bf9\u975e\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u524a\u51cf\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u52a0\u6743\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u5f97\uff1a1~6\u5730\u533a\u7ec4\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6RCEP15\u56fd\u8d27\u7269\u8d38\u6613\u975e\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u5206\u522b\u524a\u51cf 5.05%\u3001-3.06%\u30014.18%\u3001-2.9%\u30014.83% \u548c 2.2%\u3002\u5728S2\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u4e0eRCEP15\u56fd\u95f4\u5b8c\u5168\u5b9e\u73b0\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\u60c5\u5f62\u8fdb\u884c\u6807\u51c6\u9759\u6001GTAP\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u4ea7\u51fa\u4e0b\u964d\u5e45\u5ea6\u5927\u4e8e1%\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u3001\u91c7\u6398\u4e1a\u3001\u98df\u54c1\u996e\u6599\u53ca\u70df\u8349\u52a0\u5de5\u4e1a\u3001\u91cd\u5de5\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5176\u654f\u611f\u4ea7\u4e1a\uff1b\u8d27\u7269\u8d38\u6613\u975e\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u524a\u51cf\u8303\u56f4\u6269\u5c55\u81f3RCEP16\u56fd\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u540cS1\u3002\u5728S4\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c2\u8003\u8bb8\u57f9\u6e90\u548c\u7f57\u7434\u79c0\uff082020\uff09\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ee5\u5168\u7403\u548c\u5e73\u6307\u6570\u3001\u5168\u7403\u6cbb\u7406\u6307\u6570\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u5f97\u5206\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u6307\u6570\u3001\u4e0e\u533a\u5185\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u603b\u989d\u5360\u5176\u5916\u8d38\u7684\u6bd4\u91cd\u5206\u522b\u8868\u793a\u793e\u4f1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u6761\u4ef6\u3001\u8d38\u6613\u6295\u8d44\u73af\u5883\u548c\u533a\u57df\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u4e9a\u592a\u5730\u533a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e9a\u592a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u6f5c\u529b\u7684\u6307\u6807\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd0\u7528\u4e3b\u6210\u5206\u5206\u6790\u6cd5\u6d4b\u7b97\u4e9a\u592a\u5730\u533a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e9a\u592a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u6f5c\u529b\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u5f97\u5206\u3002\u6839\u636e\u7efc\u5408\u5f97\u5206\uff0c\u5c06\u4e9a\u592a\u5730\u533a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u768418\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6309\u7167\uff08-3\uff0c-0.5\uff09\u3001(-0.5\uff0c0.5) 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&nbsp; \u7531\u4e8e4\u4e2a\u653f\u7b56\u60c5\u666f\u662f\u5c42\u5c42\u9012\u8fdb\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u6d89\u53ca\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8bbe\u5b9a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u672c\u6587\u4ee5Sn\u4f5c\u4e3a Sn+1(n =1\u30012\u30013) \u57fa\u51c6\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c4\u6b21\u6807\u51c6\u9759\u6001GTAP\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u4f9d\u636e\u5404\u653f\u7b56\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u5173\u7a0e\u53ca\u975e\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u524a\u51cf\u8bbe\u5b9a\u5728RunGTAP\u8f6f\u4ef6\u4e2d\u5bf9tms\u3001ams\u53d8\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp; \uff08\u4e09\uff09\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c\u5206\u6790<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp; 1. \u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u5e94<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u6839\u636eGDP=C+I+X-M\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5c06GDP\u5206\u89e3\u4e3a\u6d88\u8d39\uff08C\uff09\u3001\u6295\u8d44\uff08I\uff09\u53ca\u51c0\u51fa\u53e3\uff08X-M\uff09\uff0c\u76f8\u5173\u53d8\u91cf\u53d8\u5316\u7ed3\u679c\u89c1\u88685\u3002\u9664\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\u5916\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u8fd8\u5c06\u4ece\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\u989d\u53ca\u8d38\u6613\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4e0a\u5bf9\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u8d38\u6613\u60c5\u51b5\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u76f8\u5173\u6570\u636e\u89c1\u88686\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"632\" height=\"339\" src=\"http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-10.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6913\" srcset=\"http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-10.png 632w, http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-10-300x161.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 632px) 100vw, 632px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"625\" height=\"324\" src=\"http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-11.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6914\" srcset=\"http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-11.png 625w, http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-11-300x156.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 625px) 100vw, 625px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;\u5728S1\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff0cRCEP\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u5747\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4ece\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7fRCEP\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u9700\u6c42\u53ca\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u6709\u6240\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u6548\u7684\u6536\u5165\u63d0\u5347\u4ecd\u5c06\u523a\u6fc0\u5c45\u6c11\u53ca\u653f\u5e9c\u6d88\u8d39\u3002\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e0a\uff0c\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u4e1c\u76dfCPTPP\u56fd\u5bb6\u5916\uff0c\u5176\u4f59RCEP\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u5747\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6b64\u589e\u52a0\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u8d44\u672c\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u6240\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5173\u6ce8\u5bf9\u5916\u8d38\u6613\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u73b0RCEP\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u51c0\u51fa\u53e3\u5747\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u88686\u7684\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\u989d\u53d8\u5316\u7ed3\u679c\uff0cRCEP\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u989d\u589e\u5e45\u5747\u5927\u4e8e\u51fa\u53e3\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u65fa\u76db\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u589e\u52a0\u8fdb\u53e3\u5f25\u8865\u4f9b\u6c42\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u51c0\u51fa\u53e3\u4e0b\u964d\uff08\u674e\u660e\u6b66\uff0c2004\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473RCEP\u56fd\u5bb6\u51fa\u73b0\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5176\u521d\u59cb\u51c0\u51fa\u53e3\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4ece\u88686\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6761\u4ef6\u53d8\u5316\u7ed3\u679c\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\uff0cRCEP\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6761\u4ef6\u5747\u5f97\u5230\u6539\u5584\u3002\u6839\u636eGTAP\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u6761\u4ef6\u53d8\u91cf\uff08tot\uff09\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff1atot (r)=psw (r)-pdw (r)\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dpsw\u3001pdw\u5206\u522b\u8868\u793a\u51fa\u53e3\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\u3001\u8fdb\u53e3\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u5728 S1\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff0cRCEP\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\u5747\u51cf\u5c0f\uff1b\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6RCEP \u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\u5747\u589e\u5927\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u6761\u4ef6\u6076\u5316\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u7efc\u5408\u5206\u6790\u5b9e\u9645GDP\u53ca\u5176\u5206\u89e3\u6307\u6807\u53d8\u5316\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5728S1\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ca\u4e1c\u76dfCPTPP 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&nbsp; \u6574\u4f53\u770b\uff0c\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u6269\u5927\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4e3a\u65b0\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e26\u6765\u79ef\u6781\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e5f\u4fc3\u8fdb\u539f\u6709\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\u3001\u8d38\u6613\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u5b9e\u9645GDP\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ecd\u672a\u52a0\u5165\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e9a\u592a\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u867d\u7136\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5176\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u751f\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ec5\u4eceGDP\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u770b\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u8f83\u4e3a\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp; 2. \u4ea7\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u5e94<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u7531\u4e8eRCEP\u5bf9\u516c\u5171\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u4e0d\u4f5c\u4efb\u4f55\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5728\u6b64\u4e3b\u8981\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5176\u4ed6\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u53ca\u8d38\u6613\u53d8\u5316\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u76f8\u5173\u53d8\u91cf\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u88687\u6240\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"647\" height=\"262\" src=\"http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-12.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6915\" srcset=\"http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-12.png 647w, http:\/\/rcepqy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-12-300x121.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 647px) 100vw, 647px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u5728S1\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684FOB\u4ef7\u51fa\u53e3\u989d\u5747\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4ece\u4ee5FOB 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